Sunday 27 May 2012

Systems analysis


In the news...two opposition leaders are released from prison after 15 days, but might face up to two more years if found guilty of 'inciting mass disorder'.

In December 2011, Vladimir Putin told the press that his government welcomes non-extremist opposition and is open to dialogue. When a journalist suggested to get the leaders of the opposition together, however, the then Prime Minister retorted that the opposition is too varied and does not present a united political platform, and so negotiating with each group about its specific demands needs to be thought through. Putin was riding high after the United Russia party with which he is associated ‘won’ the Parliamentary election earlier in December, so he could afford to be dismissive. He also had a point. Since the first mass protests took off, following allegations of wide-spread ballot-stuffing in December, three key figures began to dominate the marches. Alexei Navalny, Sergei Udaltsov and Boris Nemtsov have, in the past six months of protests, spent enough time in prison for Amnesty International to take notice. All call for electoral and political reform, control over the actions of the government, release of political prisoners and new, open elections. Admirable goals, which united hundreds of thousands of people. But, taken separately, the three men’s politics are so disparate, it is difficult to imagine them at the same party together, let alone on a political stage.  

Responsible for the catchy epithet ‘party of crooks and thieves’, now recognised by more than 2/3 of the population, Alexei Navalny came to prominence after launching in December 2010 of his RosPil project, which literally translates as ‘sawing apart’ – a website that discloses corruption by public officials by analysing financial documents available online. The project became a mass phenomenon, earning Navalny 6th place in Time’s 100 most influential people of 2012 list. His approach is to tell it like it is and not take any prisoners, coupled with a background in law, make him for a formidable public figure. But aye, there is the rub.

In 2007, Navalny founded the ‘People’ movement, whose manifesto declares that Russia is facing a national catastrophe as the population ‘degrades and dies off’. To prevent this, the movement calls on national rehabilitation, freedom and justice, and asserts that the Russian people have earned their right to live in a democracy. But that is exactly the problem - the emphasis is on the ‘Russian’. Navalny’s ideal is that of a ‘nationalist democracy’, in which immigration policy is of paramount importance. When he talks about his nationalism, Navalny sounds very reasonable and convincing. He calls for assimilation of immigrants into the traditions and laws of Russia, and envisions it as a ‘bigger, more irrational and metaphysical Canada’. In his interviews, he is either purposely evasive, or he really believes that nationalist sentiments can be indeed have a ‘human face’. The problem jolts you in the face when, in answer to the question whether he agrees with the mission statement of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration (DPNI) – Russia’s answer to the English Defense League that was banned in 2011 as extremist – he says ‘Yes, why, is something wrong with it?’ Navalny may truly fool himself into believing that by attending the Russian March rallies where slogans like ‘Russia for Russians!’ are a staple, he can somehow make them, in his own words, ‘better’. But he occupies an unfavourable public position: the far right sees him as too moderate while the liberal opposition shuns his nationalistic views and currently sees no political future for him. A real shame for someone who managed, so forcefully, to grab the attention and admiration of the Russian public.

Sergei Udaltsov, for all his admirable fervour and resilience in face of multiple arrests, really wants to turn Russia into one giant kibbutz. In 2008, Udaltsov, also a lawyer, was elected onto the executive committee of the Left Front – a political movements whose main goal is the creation of socialism in Russia. The list of grievances is familiar: corruption, disintegration of culture, science, education, health, army and  the police. The way to overcome these problems is to combine public property with true ‘people-power’ – a political and production democracy. Lenin’s call was ‘Land to the people, factories to the workers!’ In the new version, ‘each worker is an owner, and each owner, a worker’. As a side note, the manifesto states that small private property will not be expropriated in this fight against global bourgeois capitalism (oh yes, you heard right) as it must prove itself in free economic competition with public property – whatever that means. The raison d’être of this movement, is, no more not less, to ‘accelerate the movement of history!’

In 2010, Udaltsov founded ROT-Front – United Russian Workers’ Front (a holler back to 1917, again), based largely on the policies of the Left Front and calling specifically for social justice and protection for all – and not just the rich and powerful. There is a call to share the oil and gas wealth with the population, to introduce a luxury tax and access of each individual to objective and accurate information that ‘precludes manipulation of public consciousness’. Just how the movement plans to convince the unconvinced, then, remains a technical mystery. But while the Left Front strictly excludes cooperation with any reactionary ideology – such as nationalism, fascism or liberalism, the ROT-front announces its readiness to coordinate with any political party whose goal is democracy. If you are thinking these view are too weird to warrant cooperation, don’t: Russia’s Communist Party’s presidential candidate Gennady Zuganov, endorsed by Udaltsov, came in second after Putin with 17% of the vote.

Boris Nemtsov, a professional politician who was groomed by Boris Yeltsin as a potential successor before Putin, is probably the better known and most credible face of the three. He has a solid record as a liberal, becoming the first governor of the new Russia in 1991, and is perhaps best remembered by the public for being doused with mango juice by the eccentric leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (which is neither liberal, nor democratic) during a debate in the 1990s. At the moment, he is one of the 39 committee members of the Solidarnost’ Movement, founded in 2008, whose main goal is to create a competitive economic and political system in the country. The organisation’s 300 Steps to Freedom programme is the most extensive and conclusive, offering a course of European-style development and free parliamentary elections with full access by all parties to the public information systems. In 2010, Nemtsov along with ex-Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov a number of young politicians founded the Party of People’s Liberty – PARNAS, but the ministry of Justice refused to register it, citing contradictions to federal law. If anything, this bureaucratic snub is an indicator of the potential threat of the movement – which attracts many prominent public figures – to the Putin regime.

So far, however, the only idea uniting the three main strands of the opposition is the call to liberalise the electoral system to allow for fair elections and political competition. But with the Kremlin’s power undiminished, and the protest rigour in decline, what the opposition needs is a better focus and a realistic political platform to offer to the electorate. There needs to be a plan for when the protest party is over. Political competition is a great thing, but when there are too many little Davids facing different sides of Goliath, the pebbles might hurt, but most likely will not kill the current corrupt system in place. And this dilemma is what gives Russia’s ‘non-systemic’ opposition a flailing double meaning.


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